For most of 2026 the conversation about the Reserve Bank has been about when rates might fall. That conversation has flipped. On Tuesday 29 September 2026 the RBA Board meets again, and for the first time in this cycle, a serious chunk of the market thinks the next move could be up, not down. NAB has publicly forecast a rise from 4.35% to 4.60% at this very meeting, other forecasters have pencilled in a move later in the year, and market pricing has swung notably towards a hike since the latest inflation and growth figures landed.
Nobody (including the banks’ economists) actually knows what the Board will do. What we do know is what a rise would mean for repayments, and what borrowers in Geelong, on the Bellarine, across Melbourne and Australia-wide can sensibly do in the fortnight before the announcement. This guide covers both: the state of play in plain English, and a practical pre-decision checklist that works whichever way 29 September goes.
When the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in August, the Board flagged that it was watching upside inflation risks closely. Since then, three data releases have shifted the outlook. July’s monthly inflation figures showed headline inflation easing to around 3.5%, but the trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation) was reported holding near 3.6% for a second consecutive month, still clearly above the 2 to 3% target band. June-quarter GDP then came in stronger than economists expected, with reported quarterly growth of around 0.4% and annual growth of roughly 2.1%. Add a larger-than-expected trade surplus, and the picture the data paints is an economy running warmer than forecast while inflation is proving sticky.
That’s why forecasts have shifted. At the time of writing, NAB was the most prominent voice calling a September rise to 4.60%, pointing to the Board’s repeated signalling that it would act on upside inflation surprises. Several other institutions have been reported forecasting a hike at a later meeting (November is the date most often mentioned), while others still expect no change this year. Reported market pricing for a September move has ranged from roughly two-in-three odds to higher depending on the source and the day. The honest summary: the experts disagree, the forecasts are moving weekly, and none of it is a promise. What matters for your household isn’t picking the date correctly. It’s making sure your loan can comfortably absorb a rise if one comes.
The move some forecasters (most prominently NAB) have pencilled in for the RBA’s 29 September 2026 meeting. Other major banks were reported tipping a later move or none this year. Forecasts are opinions and change frequently: check the RBA’s announcement at 2:30pm AEST on 29 September, and confirm what any move means for your loan with your lender or broker.
If the cash rate rises and your lender passes the increase on in full (which is typical for variable-rate loans, though never guaranteed in either timing or amount), the impact on your repayments is simple arithmetic. As a rule of thumb, each 0.25 percentage point adds roughly $16 a month for every $100,000 of loan balance on a 30-year principal-and-interest loan. The table below shows illustrative monthly increases for common loan sizes, modelled on a 30-year principal-and-interest loan moving from an example rate of 6.00% to 6.25% (one rise) or 6.50% (two rises). Your actual numbers will differ with your rate, remaining term and structure. These are for orientation only.
| Loan balance | Approx. extra per month after one 0.25% rise | Approx. extra per month after two rises (0.50%) |
|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | ~$65 | ~$130 |
| $500,000 | ~$81 | ~$163 |
| $600,000 | ~$97 | ~$195 |
| $750,000 | ~$121 | ~$244 |
| $900,000 | ~$146 | ~$293 |
Illustrative only, calculated on a 30-year principal-and-interest loan; actual repayment changes depend on your current rate, remaining loan term, and whether and when your lender passes on any change. Two things are worth noticing. First, a single 0.25% move is meaningful but manageable for most budgets. It’s the cumulative effect that bites, which is why mortgage stress is already elevated after the rises earlier in this cycle. Second, borrowers rolling off fixed rates feel a rise differently: if your fixed term ends in the next six to twelve months, the rate you roll onto is the number that matters, and our fixed rate rollover guide walks through exactly how to handle it.
Whenever hike talk starts, fixing gets tempting. Be careful: lenders read the same forecasts you do, and fixed rates are typically priced to reflect where the market already expects the cash rate to go. Fixing after the market has priced in rises means you’re paying for that expectation, and if the RBA ends up holding or cutting sooner than expected, you can find yourself locked above the going variable rate, with break costs standing between you and a better deal. Fixing is best understood as buying certainty, not beating the bank: for households whose budgets couldn’t absorb another couple of rises, certainty has real value; for households with room to move, flexibility usually earns its keep.
A split loan (part fixed, part variable) remains the practical middle path for many borrowers, capping the damage of further rises on one portion while keeping offset flexibility and unlimited extra repayments on the other. The right mix depends on your buffer, your income stability and your plans for the property, and it’s a structural decision worth getting right rather than rushing before a single meeting. Our guide to fixed vs variable rates in 2026 covers the trade-offs in detail, and offset accounts deserve a closer look too: every dollar in offset works harder as rates go higher, entirely rise-proof and without locking anything in.
Picture a couple in Lara with a $580,000 variable loan, two young kids and one-and-a-half incomes. The September headlines have them nervous, and their first instinct is to fix the whole loan before the meeting. Their broker runs the numbers a different way first: their current variable rate hasn’t been repriced since they settled two years ago, and a quick repricing request to their lender’s retention team lowers their rate before any RBA meeting even happens, a saving that would more than offset one 0.25% rise on its own. From there, they stress-test the budget at a full 0.50% above today’s repayments, park their tax refunds in offset as a buffer, and split just a portion of the loan for certainty rather than fixing the lot. The scenario is illustrative rather than a real client file, but it reflects the order of operations we work through with borrowers every week: reprice first, buffer second, structure third, then let the RBA do whatever it does.
1. Ask for a better rate this week. The single highest-value phone call in home lending is the repricing request. Lenders routinely offer sharper rates to new customers than to loyal ones, and a well-argued request (or a broker-lodged one) frequently claws back more than a single RBA rise would add. If your lender won’t move, that’s useful information too: it tells you a refinance conversation is overdue, and our free refinance assessment can put real numbers on it.
2. Stress-test your own budget at +0.50%. Don’t wait for the bank to do it. Using the table above, work out your repayment two rises from now and try living on it for a month, banking the difference into offset. Either the rises come and you’re already adjusted, or they don’t and you’ve built a buffer for free.
3. Check your fixed-rate expiry date. If your fixed term ends within the next year, diarise it now and start the comparison process about three months out. Rolling passively onto a lender’s default revert rate is consistently one of the most expensive non-decisions in Australian home lending.
4. Buying this spring? Re-check your pre-approval and your numbers. Rate rises flow through to borrowing power, and lender assessment rates move with the market. A pre-approval issued months ago may not reflect what you could borrow after a hike, especially with APRA’s 6x debt-to-income cap now in force. If you’re aiming to buy in Geelong, on the Bellarine or in Melbourne before Christmas, bid with a margin below your maximum rather than at it. Our spring buying timeline maps out the dates.
5. Deal with expensive short-term debt. Car loans, personal loans and credit cards usually carry far higher rates than a mortgage, and they also drag on serviceability. Whether through repayment, restructuring or (carefully, with eyes open to the long-term cost) consolidation, cleaning these up strengthens your position whatever rates do.
Don’t make structural loan decisions on the morning of an RBA meeting. The best outcomes we see come from borrowers who set their strategy (rate, structure, buffer) based on their own circumstances, then treat individual RBA announcements as noise. If your loan only works when the RBA cooperates, the problem is the loan, not the RBA. A quick review with a broker costs nothing and tells you exactly where you stand before the 29 September announcement.
Entirely possible, and arguably still the base case for several forecasters. If 29 September comes and goes with the cash rate at 4.35%, none of the preparation above is wasted: a repriced rate saves you money at any cash rate, a buffer in offset cuts your interest bill from day one, and a current pre-approval simply makes you a stronger buyer in a spring market where Victoria’s new auction transparency rules are about to change how bidding works anyway. Preparation for a rise and good loan hygiene are the same list.
What we’d caution against is the opposite reaction: assuming a hold means the danger has passed. The data that put a hike on the table (sticky underlying inflation, stronger-than-expected growth) doesn’t reset at one meeting, and the banks tipping a later move have simply shifted the question to November. Borrowers on the Bellarine, in Torquay, across Greater Geelong, Ballarat, Melbourne’s west and Australia-wide are all working with the same uncertainty. The households that handle it best aren’t the ones who guess the RBA correctly. They’re the ones whose loans are set up so the guess doesn’t matter.
The RBA Board’s next cash rate announcement is scheduled for Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 2:30pm AEST. At the time of writing the cash rate sat at 4.35%, where it had been held through recent meetings. Always confirm dates and outcomes directly via the RBA’s website, as schedules and decisions are the RBA’s alone.
Nobody knows, including the forecasters. At the time of writing, NAB was publicly forecasting a 0.25% rise to 4.60% at the September meeting, some other institutions were tipping a move later in the year, and others expected no change in 2026. Forecasts have shifted repeatedly as new inflation and growth data has landed, so treat any prediction (including the ones in this article) as an opinion with a date on it, and check current positions before making decisions.
As a rough guide, about $16 a month for every $100,000 of loan balance on a 30-year principal-and-interest loan, so roughly $97 a month on a $600,000 loan. The exact figure depends on your current rate, remaining term and loan structure, and on whether your lender passes on the full change. A broker or your lender can calculate your specific numbers.
Not automatically. Fixed rates are generally priced to reflect where the market already expects the cash rate to go, so fixing after hike expectations build means paying for that expectation, and break costs can make it expensive to unwind if rates later fall. Fixing makes most sense as a certainty decision for budgets that couldn’t absorb further rises, and a split loan can offer a middle path. It’s a decision worth modelling properly against your circumstances rather than timing around one meeting.
We’ll review your current rate, stress-test your repayments, and model fixed, variable and split options in plain English, for homeowners and buyers across Geelong, the Bellarine, the Surf Coast, Melbourne and Australia-wide. No obligation.
With years of experience in mortgage broking and finance, Melanie helps first home buyers, refinancers, investors and business owners across Geelong, the Bellarine, the Surf Coast, Melbourne and regional Victoria make their money work harder. Contact our team on 03 9020 2699.
