If you hold a mortgage in Geelong, on the Bellarine Peninsula, along the Surf Coast or anywhere in Victoria, 11 August 2026 is a date worth circling. That is when the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board hands down its next cash rate decision, and after a year in which rates have already risen three times, this one is being called a genuine line-ball decision by economists.
This guide sets out where rates stand, what the experts are forecasting, what another rise would actually cost on a typical loan, and, most importantly, the practical steps you can take in the next fortnight so that the decision, whichever way it goes, doesn’t catch your household budget off guard.
2026 has been a tougher year for borrowers than many forecasters expected. The RBA lifted the cash rate three times over its February, March and May meetings before pausing at 4.35% in June. In its June statement, the Board was blunt about why rates had risen: headline and underlying inflation were “still too high”, driven in part by higher oil prices and capacity pressures in the economy.
The June pause was not a signal that the job is done. The Board said it wanted time to assess how households were responding to the earlier increases and to the disruption in global oil supply, noting that growth in consumer spending was slowing as expected. Critically, it also said it remains willing to raise rates further if needed and will “do what it considers necessary” to manage inflation. That leaves the August meeting genuinely live.
is when the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board announces its next cash rate decision: with the June quarter inflation data, released in the days beforehand, expected to be the deciding input.
Forecasters are unusually divided. In recent expert surveys, around 55% of economists expected at least one further rate increase in 2026, and of those tipping a hike, roughly 62% nominated August as the most likely month. At the same time, several of the big four banks (Commonwealth Bank, NAB and ANZ) expect the cash rate to remain on hold at 4.35% through the rest of 2026, while Westpac has forecast one more increase, with August the probable timing.
Independent economist Saul Eslake summed up the mood: “At the moment, I think they’ll probably raise rates again at the August meeting, but that depends on the June quarter inflation figures.” He has indicated that if inflation prints around 3% to 3.25% or lower, the case for a hike weakens considerably. In other words, nobody (including the banks) knows for certain. That uncertainty is exactly why preparing beats predicting.
If the RBA does move in August, the standard increment is 0.25 percentage points. As a simple rule of thumb, every 0.25% added to your interest rate costs about $250 a year in extra interest for each $100,000 you owe: roughly $21 a month per $100,000. The table below shows that arithmetic at common loan sizes for the Geelong and Melbourne markets. Note these are approximate interest-cost figures only: your actual repayment change depends on your loan term, structure and lender, so confirm your own numbers with your lender or broker.
| Loan Balance | Approx. Extra Interest Per Year (+0.25%) | Approx. Extra Per Month |
|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | $1,000 | About $83 |
| $500,000 | $1,250 | About $104 |
| $600,000 | $1,500 | About $125 |
| $750,000 | $1,875 | About $156 |
Remember that any August rise would come on top of the three increases already passed through this year. It is the cumulative effect, not any single 0.25% move, that is squeezing household budgets, which is why the preparation steps below focus on your whole loan, not just the next announcement.
Dan and Priya own a home in Highton with a variable loan they took out in 2023 and have not touched since. After absorbing this year’s three rate rises, they were nervous about what an August increase would do to their budget. Before the June RBA meeting we ran a full loan review: we asked their existing lender for a repricing of their variable rate, compared the result against the broader market, and modelled their repayments with a further two rises built in as a stress test. Their lender sharpened the rate to keep them, which offset a meaningful part of this year’s increases, and they redirected the saving into their offset account to build a buffer. Whatever happens on 11 August, they now know their budget can absorb it: that certainty was worth more to them than any forecast.
1. Ask your lender to reprice your rate. Lenders routinely offer sharper variable rates to new customers than to existing ones. A single phone call (or a request made through your broker) asking your lender to match its new-customer pricing costs nothing and regularly delivers a saving that offsets some or all of a future rate rise. If they won’t move, that tells you something too.
2. Compare the market before the decision, not after. If your loan hasn’t been reviewed in more than a couple of years, there is a fair chance you are paying a loyalty tax. Our guide to refinancing your home loan in 2026 walks through when switching is worth it and what it costs. Starting the comparison now means you can act quickly whichever way the RBA moves.
3. Build your buffer in an offset or redraw. Every dollar sitting in an offset account reduces the interest you pay while staying available for emergencies. If you have surplus cash in a low-interest transaction account, moving it against your loan is one of the quickest ways to blunt the effect of higher rates.
4. Weigh up fixed versus variable with fresh eyes. Fixing after rates have risen is not automatically the wrong move, but it is a decision about certainty rather than a bet on beating the market. Our comparison of fixed vs variable rate home loans in 2026 covers the trade-offs, including split-loan structures that give you a foot in each camp.
5. Stress-test your budget two rises ahead. Work out your repayments if rates rose another 0.50% from here. If that number is uncomfortable, act now: whether that means trimming expenses, consolidating higher-interest debts (see our guide to debt consolidation home loans), or restructuring the loan itself. Acting from a position of choice always beats acting under pressure.
Don’t wait for the RBA announcement to start a refinance: lenders are typically flooded with applications in the days after a rate decision, and turnaround times stretch out. Getting your documents together and your application assessed in the fortnight before the meeting means you can settle on your terms. If you are buying rather than refinancing, the same logic applies to pre-approval: have it in place before the decision, and understand that a rate rise can reduce your borrowing power, so re-confirm your numbers if the cash rate moves.
A hold on 11 August would be welcome news, but it would not mean the pressure is off. The Board has explicitly kept the door open to further tightening, and the banks that expect a hold still expect rates to stay at 4.35% for an extended period rather than fall quickly. For borrowers, a hold simply buys time, and everything on the checklist above still pays off in a flat-rate environment, because a sharper rate and a bigger buffer save you money at any cash rate. For a broader view of where rates may head, see our interest rate forecast for Australia in 2026.
Local conditions matter here too. Geelong, the Bellarine and the Surf Coast have held up as popular markets for families and sea-changers, which means competition among lenders for quality borrowers in our region remains strong. That competition is your leverage: whether rates rise or hold, a well-presented application from a borrower with clean finances gets sharp pricing. As local brokers serving clients from Geelong and Torquay through to Melbourne and across Australia, that is exactly the position we help clients build.
The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board announces its next cash rate decision on 11 August 2026, with the announcement made at 2.30pm AEST after the meeting. The cash rate currently sits at 4.35%, where it was held at the June 2026 meeting after three increases earlier in the year.
Nobody knows for certain. Recent surveys show around 55% of economists expect at least one more rise in 2026, and most of those nominate August, but CBA, NAB and ANZ expect a hold, while Westpac forecasts a rise. Most experts agree the June quarter inflation figures, released shortly before the meeting, will be the deciding factor. Rather than betting on an outcome, prepare your loan so either result is manageable.
It depends on what you value. Fixed rates already have market expectations of future moves priced into them, so fixing is primarily a way to buy repayment certainty rather than to outsmart the market. If certainty would help you sleep at night, a fixed or split loan is worth modelling; if you want flexibility, offset access and the ability to make unlimited extra repayments, variable may still suit better. A broker can model both against your actual budget.
As a rule of thumb, each 0.25 percentage point adds roughly $250 a year in interest for every $100,000 owing: about $104 a month on a $500,000 balance. Your exact repayment change depends on your loan term, structure and lender, so confirm the precise figure with your lender or broker before making decisions.
We’ll check your current rate against the market, request a repricing from your lender, and stress-test your repayments: free and with no obligation.
With years of experience in mortgage broking and finance, Melanie helps homeowners, buyers and investors across Geelong, the Bellarine, the Surf Coast, Melbourne and regional Victoria navigate changing interest rates and structure the right loan. Contact our team on 03 9020 2699.
