It’s the question we’re hearing more than any other right now, from first home buyers in Armstrong Creek to upgraders in Ocean Grove and investors eyeing Geelong from interstate: should I buy now, or wait for prices to fall further? And it’s a fair question. The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August 2026, but its statement carried two lines that matter enormously for buyers: housing prices are falling in some capital cities, and new housing loans are declining noticeably. After years of being told to hurry up before prices ran away, plenty of buyers suddenly find themselves wondering whether patience is the smarter play.
Here’s the honest broker’s answer: there is no single right answer, but there is a right way to think it through. The buy-or-wait decision is really three questions stacked on top of each other: what is the market doing, what does the maths say, and what does your personal situation allow? This guide works through all three, with the local lens we bring to every conversation across Geelong, the Bellarine Peninsula, Torquay and the Surf Coast, and the same framework we use with clients Australia-wide.
Strip away the commentary and the verifiable picture looks like this. The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board met on 11 August 2026 and left the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has sat since its last move. The Board’s own statement described inflation as still too high, flagged that it doesn’t expect inflation back at target until late 2027, and (critically for anyone trying to time a purchase) said it is prepared to raise rates further if upside inflation risks materialise. That last point deserves more attention than it’s getting: the popular assumption that “the next move must be down” is not what the central bank itself is saying. We covered the decision in detail in our August RBA decision guide.
At the same time, the RBA observed that housing prices are falling in some capital cities and new housing lending has declined noticeably. Fewer active borrowers means thinner competition at open homes and auctions: something our clients have been noticing across parts of Greater Geelong and Melbourne’s west since autumn. But “some capital cities” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Conditions differ sharply between cities, between regions, and between suburbs five minutes apart. A national headline tells you almost nothing about the street you want to buy on: check recent comparable sales in your target pocket, not the national average, and treat any specific price figure you read as something to verify with current data rather than gospel.
The argument for waiting is simple: if prices in your target area are drifting down, every month of patience makes the same home cheaper, and a lower purchase price means a smaller deposit requirement, less lenders mortgage insurance if you’re above 80% LVR, and lower stamp duty, since duty scales with price (our Victorian stamp duty guide explains how the brackets work). Waiting also buys time to grow your deposit and strengthen your application.
But waiting carries real risks that rarely make the headlines. The market bottom is only ever visible in the rear-view mirror: by the time falling prices have obviously stopped falling, confidence has usually returned and competition with it. Rents keep accruing while you wait. Borrowing rules, lender policies and government scheme settings change over time. And if the RBA follows through on its warning and lifts rates while you’re waiting, your borrowing power shrinks and repayments on any given loan rise, which can swallow the price saving you were waiting for. There’s also a quieter risk we see often: buyers who wait for a perfect bottom develop permanent cold feet, and are still renting three years later having watched the cycle turn without them.
Softer markets hand power back to prepared buyers in ways that booming markets never do. Vendors negotiate. Cooling-off periods and building inspections stop feeling like luxuries you’ll be punished for requesting. Properties sit long enough for you to do proper due diligence rather than making the biggest financial decision of your life in a four-day scramble. Auction clearance pressure eases, and private sales with genuine negotiation become common again: conditions our guide to buying at auction can help you exploit either way.
The deeper argument is the old one: time in the market tends to beat timing the market, provided you buy quality and hold long enough. If you find the right home at a price you can comfortably service, the difference between buying it now and buying it marginally cheaper in a hypothetical future has historically mattered far less over a ten-year horizon than whether you bought well at all. That logic applies to owner-occupiers most strongly: you have to live somewhere, and every year of ownership is a year of rent you didn’t pay. For investors the calculation is colder and should lean harder on yield, vacancy and cash flow; our first investment property guide walks through it. And whichever camp you’re in, if you’re weighing ownership against continuing to rent, our rent vs buy calculator puts numbers on the comparison.
| Factor | Buying now (August 2026) | Waiting 6-12 months |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase price | Today’s price, but with genuine room to negotiate in softer pockets | Possibly lower, but not guaranteed, and varies street by street |
| Interest rates | Known today; you can structure fixed, variable or split with certainty | Unknown: RBA has flagged it could raise rates further if inflation risks materialise |
| Competition | Thinner: new housing lending is declining, per the RBA | May increase sharply if sentiment turns or rates fall |
| Choice of stock | Spring listings arriving now across Geelong and the Bellarine | Depends on vendor confidence: softer markets can mean fewer quality listings |
| Your costs while waiting | None: you start building equity and stop paying rent | Rent continues; savings grow, but scheme rules and lender policies can shift |
| Risk profile | Short-term paper losses possible if prices keep easing: see our negative equity guide | Risk of higher rates, reduced borrowing power, or the market turning without warning |
Let’s put illustrative numbers on it, because the trade-off is less intuitive than it looks. Suppose you’re weighing a $700,000 purchase and prices in your target suburb drift 5% lower over the next year. Waiting saves $35,000 on the price: a smaller loan, less stamp duty, and a deposit that stretches further. On paper, patience pays.
Now add the other side of the ledger. Using a purely illustrative rate of 6.00% p.a. on a 30-year loan (this is a worked example, not a quote; actual rates vary by lender and borrower, so confirm current pricing with your broker) each 0.25 percentage point of rate movement changes repayments on a $600,000 loan by roughly $95-$100 a month. Run the full scenario: buy today at $700,000 with a 10% deposit and you borrow $630,000. Wait a year, pay 5% less ($665,000) with the same deposit percentage and you borrow about $598,500, but if rates have risen 0.50 percentage points in the meantime, the monthly repayment on the smaller, cheaper loan comes out at essentially the same figure, and slightly higher on our worked numbers. The entire $35,000 price saving can be neutralised in repayment terms by half a percentage point of rate movement. It works in reverse too, if rates fell while prices fell, waiting would win twice. The point isn’t that either outcome is predicted; it’s that anyone telling you the answer is obvious is ignoring half the equation.
The cash rate as it stood after the RBA’s 11 August 2026 hold: with the Board explicitly noting it is prepared to raise rates further if upside inflation risks materialise, and inflation not expected back at target until late 2027. Rate direction from here is genuinely uncertain, in both directions.
There’s one more variable the maths can’t ignore: borrowing power. Lenders assess your application at a buffer above the actual rate, so if rates rise while you wait, the maximum you can borrow falls: sometimes by more than the price falls you were waiting for. If your budget is already stretched, waiting in a rising-rate environment can shrink your options rather than expand them. Our guide to borrowing power explains how the assessment works, and it’s worth re-checking yours whenever rates or your circumstances move.
National commentary is written about Sydney and Melbourne; you’re probably not buying the national average. Around Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula, the market has its own rhythms: lifestyle demand in Torquay, Ocean Grove and Barwon Heads behaves differently from family-home demand in Lara, Armstrong Creek and the northern suburbs, which behaves differently again from investor-grade stock near the CBD and Deakin. Spring listings are beginning to build now, which traditionally means more choice through September and October: we covered how to prepare in our spring 2026 finance-ready guide. A softer overall market plus spring stock is, historically, a favourable window for buyers who have their finance arranged, and a frustrating one for buyers who fall in love with a home first and think about the loan second.
For first home buyers, one more factor belongs in the timing decision: government support. Schemes like the expanded Help to Buy program (which we unpacked in our Help to Buy 2026 guide) plus first home owner grants, stamp duty concessions and low-deposit pathways all have eligibility rules, caps and settings that are adjusted from time to time. Scheme settings, price caps and grant amounts change, so confirm the current rules with the relevant federal or state authority, or ask us to check what you’d qualify for today. Sometimes the scheme you’re eligible for right now is worth more than a hoped-for price fall; our first home buyer guide covers the landscape.
Consider a scenario playing out across the region right now. A couple renting in Belmont have a healthy deposit saved and have spent six months watching listings in Armstrong Creek and Grovedale, waiting for prices to fall further. Meanwhile their landlord has lifted the rent at renewal, and every month of waiting costs them another month of someone else’s mortgage. When we sit down and run their numbers, the question changes shape: it stops being “will prices fall another few per cent?” and becomes “what can we comfortably service today, what’s our buffer if rates rise, and what does waiting actually cost us per month in rent and risk?” For one couple the honest answer is to buy this spring with a negotiating mindset and pre-approval in hand; for another with a thinner buffer or a job change coming, the honest answer is to wait, keep saving, and reassess after the next RBA meetings. Same market, different right answers: that’s the point.
When clients ask us “now or later?”, we work through five questions. First, can you comfortably service the loan at today’s rates plus a meaningful buffer: not just squeeze in? Second, is your income stable over at least the next couple of years? Third, do you have a genuine emergency buffer left after the deposit and costs, so a paper fall in prices is an inconvenience rather than a crisis? (Our negative equity guide explains why equity only matters when you’re forced to sell.) Fourth, is your time horizon five years or more? Short holding periods are where buying in a soft market goes wrong, because transaction costs and short-term price moves dominate. Fifth, have you found a property you’d be happy to own through a full cycle? If you answer yes to all five, the calendar matters far less than buyers fear. If you answer no to two or more, waiting isn’t market timing: it’s prudence.
In a softer market, pre-approval is a negotiating weapon, not just a formality. A vendor weighing two offers will routinely favour the buyer who can move quickly and won’t fall over on finance, and in a market where lending is declining, agents know finance failures are more common. Get your pre-approval sorted before you start negotiating, keep it current (most last around 90 days), and structure it with your fixed-versus-variable decision already thought through, so you can act the day you find the right property rather than starting the paperwork after the fact.
No. The RBA’s August 2026 statement noted prices falling in some capital cities, not all, and conditions vary sharply between cities, regions and individual suburbs. The only data that matters for your decision is recent comparable sales in the specific pockets you’re targeting. Check current local data or ask your broker or a local agent rather than relying on national headlines.
Nobody can promise either direction. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in August 2026, said inflation isn’t expected back at target until late 2027, and explicitly flagged it is prepared to raise rates further if upside inflation risks materialise. Building your buying decision on an assumed rate cut is a gamble; building it on what you can comfortably service at today’s rates plus a buffer is a plan.
If you’ve bought a quality property you can comfortably afford and plan to hold for five-plus years, a further dip is usually a paper loss that recovers with the cycle: it only becomes a real loss if you’re forced to sell into it. That’s why buffers, stable income and time horizon matter more than perfectly timing the bottom. If your equity position would keep you up at night, that’s a signal to strengthen your deposit first.
Spring traditionally brings more listings across Geelong, the Bellarine and the Surf Coast, and this year that extra choice arrives in a softer market with less buyer competition: historically a favourable combination for prepared buyers. Whether it’s right for you depends on your finances, not the season: get pre-approved, know your walk-away price, and negotiate. If your situation says wait, the market will still be here next year.
We’ll run your real numbers (borrowing power, buffers, scheme eligibility and repayments under different rate scenarios) so you can make the buy-or-wait call on evidence, not headlines. Serving Geelong, the Bellarine Peninsula, Torquay, the Surf Coast, Melbourne and clients Australia-wide.
With years of experience in mortgage broking and finance, Melanie helps first home buyers, refinancers, investors and business owners across Geelong, the Bellarine, the Surf Coast, Melbourne and regional Victoria make their money work harder. Contact our team on 03 9020 2699.
